1. The U.S. labor market showed some signs of weakening. The Bureau of Labor Statistics
revised its new jobs figures for the months of May and June by a significant amount.
(Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics).
2. Inflation remained steady in July, with a CPI of 2.7%, unchanged from the month of June.
The below expectations CPI figure might raise chances for the Federal Reserve to resume interest rate cuts soon. (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics).
3. The U.S. government announced a further extension (90 days) to the China reciprocal tariffs
implementation. Financial markets rose on Tuesday, August 12th as a result of the announcement. (Source: USA Today).
.
The sustained weakness in the U.S. dollar over the period provided a tailwind for both the MSCI EAFE and MSCI Emerging Markets indexes, as foreign-currency-denominated assets appreciated in USD terms.
Source: Source: Morningstar
The month of August has seen a bullish market so far as we enter deep into the summer season. For example, the NASDAQ Composite index TR is up in the period from 08/01/2025 to 08/13/2025 by +2.82%. By the same token, the NASDAQ is up +12.88% YTD as well as the S&P 500 TR by +10.81% at the close of market 08/13/2025. The positive indicators are a result of a number of factors including positive macroeconomic figures, significant technological advances and geopolitical news.
Emerging and developed international markets have also seen positive returns in the past month with the MSCI EAFE NR index posting a +4.25% gain so far in the month of august (08/01 to 08/13). The MSCI Emerging Markets Select NR also posted a significant gain of +3.32% for the same time period. Both indices have double-digit returns year-to-date. This outstanding performance can be attributed to the volatile environment in the U.S. markets seen during the 1st half of 2025. Investors wariness may have resulted in a flight to international markets, bolstering their values and at the same time contributing to the U.S. Dollar decline in value vs other major international
currencies.
On a macroeconomic level, the U.S. Job market has seen some sign of softening while inflation remains steady. Oil prices have seen some volatility as a result of geopolitical conflict in the middle east and renewed sanctions from the U.S. towards Iran and Russia. However, the demand for oil from major economies has been dwindling, resulting in low energy prices as of mid-august (BRENT crude oil $66/barrel, WTI crude oil $67/barrel).
To finalize, in the upcoming months, investors will be watching closely the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates as well as on-going reciprocal tariff negotiations between the U.S. and its international trade partners. We will also keep an eye out on the growth of the economy. The latest “GDPNow” Q3 forecast estimate for real GDP growth by the Federal Reserve of Atlanta stands at 2.5%, up from 2.3% at the end of July. It seems that the trend is for the economy to exhibit growth above expectations set in the 1st half of 2025.
Source: Morningstar, Wilshire, CNN, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Thursday, September 11, 2025, The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will
release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for August, providing
insights into inflation trends (Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics).
Disclosures
Commentary offered in this blog is for informational and educational purposes only. Opinions and forecasts regarding markets, securities, products, portfolios, or holdings are given as of the date provided and are subject to change at any time. No offer to sell, solicitation, or recommendation of any security or investment product is intended. Any expressions or opinions reflect the views of the author and are not necessarily those of TPFG or its affiliates. TPFG does not provide tax or legal advice. Investors should consult their financial, tax or legal professionals before investing. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Certain information and data may be supplied by unaffiliated third parties as sourced. Although the author believes the information is reliable, we cannot warrant the accuracy, timeliness or suitability of the information or materials offered by third party sources.
For Informational Purposes Only
PULSE 250826
CID 9903494087