Last Month's Digest
1. Markets stabilized on January 21st after suffering their worst decline since April of 2025, helped by Donald Trump’s rejection of using force in his pursuit of Greenland, a stance that lifted stocks and slowed the bond selloff. (Source: Bloomberg)
2. The 2026 World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos, Switzerland, ran from January 19-23, 2026. Focusing on global cooperation and innovation under the theme ‘A Spirit of Dialogue’. (Source: World Economic Forum)
3. Pending sales of U.S. existing homes fell in December by the most since April 2020, according to the National Association of Realtors. (Source: Bloomberg)
Chart of the Month
US Equities
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The chart shows although US equities rallied in 2025, the gains are no match for the rest of the world.
Source: Bloomberg
Market Outlook
Global financial markets enter February 2026 underheightened volatility. Renewed tariff threats from the U.S. toward Europe,escalating geopolitical tensions, and growing upheaval in software stocks havetriggered multi‑day sell‑offs across U.S. equities, sendingthe Nasdaq plunging over -2.5% year-to-date.
Safe‑haven demand remains intense asgold reaches record highs above $5,000/oz. Meanwhile, commodities sensitive to China (e.g., iron ore) face downsidepressure amid strained negotiations and price discounts.
The IMF projects global growth to slow to 3.1% in 2026 amidfading early 2025 momentum, increased protectionism, and persistent policyuncertainty. Inflation continues to moderate globally; however, U.S. inflationremains above target, but recent declines in U.S. jobs growth further reinforcethe case for additional monetary easing. Together, these factors leave the dooropen for another potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve at its March 17thmeeting.
Geoeconomic confrontation in the form of sanctions, tariffs, etc., is identified as thetop global risk of 2026 by the World Economic Forum. Investors are closely evaluating theirstrategic positioning and remain in a state of heightened vigilance as theyawait clearer signals from the U.S. administration regarding its statedinterest in acquiring semi‑autonomous Greenland from Denmark.The developments unfolding in early 2026 suggest that the United States may beembarking on a broader global security initiative, potentially exposingunderlying divisions within the European Union.
Source: Morningstar, The Federal Reserve, World Economic Forum, IMF, Bloomberg
Figures to Watch
Source: Morningstar, YCharts
Looking Ahead
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Wednesday, January 28, 2026 The Federal Reserve’s next FOMC policy meeting. Markets are watching closely due to expectations of a potential additional rate cut.
- Wednesday, February 11, 2026- The January 2026 CPI (inflation) report will be published.
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Commentary offered in this blog is for informational and educational purposes only. Opinions and forecasts regarding markets, securities, products, portfolios, or holdings are given as of the date provided and are subject to change at any time. No offer to sell, solicitation, or recommendation of any security or investment product is intended. Any expressions or opinions reflect the views of the author and are not necessarily those of TPFG or its affiliates. TPFG does not provide tax or legal advice. Investors should consult their financial, tax or legal professionals before investing. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Certain information and data may be supplied by unaffiliated third parties as sourced. Although the author believes the information is reliable, we cannot warrant the accuracy, timeliness, or suitability of the information or materials offered by third-party sources.
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