Last Month’s Digest
1. Throughout February, global markets remained broadly resilient despite several geopolitical developments, including tariff threats between the U.S. and EU and political tensions involving Venezuela and Iran. (Source: Bloomberg)
2. The January Jobs report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed 130k jobs added to the economy. Double the expectations set by economists and an indication of labor market recovery compared to 2025. (Source: BLS.gov)
3. The January Core Price Index indicated an increase of 0.2%, for a 2.4% rise over the past 12 months. A figure lower than economists had forecasted, suggesting a cooling of inflationary pressures.
Source: Bloomberg, BLS.gov
Market Outlook
Markets were rattled during the first weekend of the month of March by the geopolitical events that transpired in Iran and the middle east. The fallout from the conflict is still developing but so far we have seen a volatile financial market environment with ebbs and flows as investors navigate the turbulence with caution. Energy prices soared as supply remains compromised, while safe haven assets such as Gold and the US Dollar saw significant appreciation as a result. The next few days and weeks remain a question mark in the mind of investors as to how the geopolitical landscape develops and what that means for financial markets and volatility.
The Federal Reserve is scheduled to meet in March to evaluate its interest‑rate policy. Recent labor market data indicate that a rate cut has become less likely, particularly given the Federal Open Market Committee’s renewed emphasis on supporting labor‑market conditions. At the same time, January’s Core Price Index reflected a cooling inflation trend, an encouraging development for policymakers. However, it remains to be seen how the increasing energy prices will affect the CPI for the month of March; all signals point to a higher than anticipated increase. While analysts had previously anticipated two rate cuts in 2026, consensus expectations have shifted toward the likelihood of a single cut occurring later in the year, potentially in September.
Sources: The Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, Morningstar
Chart of the Month
Our commentary
WTI Crude Oil Spot price jumped in early March as a result of the Iran conflict sparking inflation fears. The almost total closure of the Strait of Hormuz has magnified oil supply threats.
Looking Ahead
- The Federal Reserve’s next FOMC policy meeting is scheduled for March 17–18, 2026.
- The February 2026 Core Price Index (inflation) report will be published on March 11, 2026.
- Producer Price Index (PPI) data for February, an important measure of wholesale inflation will be released mid‑March.
Figures to Watch
Source: Morningstar, YCharts
Disclosures
Commentary offered in this blog is for informational and educational purposes only. Opinions and forecasts regarding markets, securities, products, portfolios, or holdings are given as of the date provided and are subject to change at any time. No offer to sell, solicitation, or recommendation of any security or investment product is intended. Any expressions or opinions reflect the views of the author and are not necessarily those of TPFG or its affiliates. TPFG does not provide tax or legal advice. Investors should consult their financial, tax or legal professionals before investing. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Certain information and data may be supplied by unaffiliated third parties as sourced. Although the author believes the information is reliable, we cannot warrant the accuracy, timeliness or suitability of the information or materials offered by third party sources.
For Informational Purposes Only
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